Stop gambling on sentiment.
Build your own fundamental analysis in twelve weeks. Learn to read annual reports, work out margins and valuation, and write down why you might be wrong.
- Cut through market noise
- Keep a personal decision diary
- Analyze companies with facts, not emotions
Try week 9 for yourself
Poldervelo N.V. is a made-up practice company. Revenue today is €210 million, it has 20 million shares, and we look three years ahead.
- Revenue in year 3
- €243.1m
- Earnings per share
- €0.79
- At your P/E
- €11.81
How you work in this program
The outcome is not the decision
A well-reasoned choice can turn out badly, and a poor one can turn out well. So you keep a decision diary: you write down what you knew and assumed before you know how it ends.
Evidence beats claims
"Strong brand" and "market leader" in an annual report are claims. You look for the evidence in the numbers: stable margins, customers who stay, return on capital.
You write uncertainty down
You work with ranges instead of a single number. And you decide in advance which signals would change your mind, so you can't talk yourself out of them later.
The route in twelve weeks
You choose one company to learn from, not to buy, and analyze it in five blocks: business quality, growth, financial health, valuation and risk. Each week has a workbook with an explanation, a worked example, an assignment and a checklist.
About 39 to 44 hours in total.
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1
Foundation
Your method and your decision diary
Why a fixed method helps, six thinking errors to recognize, and your first diary entry.
2 to 3 hours
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2
Foundation
Choosing a company and finding sources
Pick a practice company and tell reliable sources apart from opinion.
3 hours
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3
Block 1: business quality
Business model and competitive advantage
Six questions for any business model, and a company's claims weighed against the evidence.
3 to 4 hours
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4
Block 1: business quality
Reading annual reports
The order to read an annual report in, and where the warning signs are.
4 to 5 hours
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5
Block 1: business quality
Margins and return on capital
Three margins, ROE and ROIC, and whether returns come from margin, efficiency or debt.
3 to 4 hours
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6
Block 3: financial health
Can the company carry its debt?
Debt ratios, the gap between profit and cash flow, and warning signs in working capital.
3 to 4 hours
Feedback session 1: you hand in blocks 1 and 3 and get feedback on your reasoning.
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7
Block 2: growth
Growth: what explains the numbers?
Where growth comes from, and whether profit and cash flow grow along with revenue.
3 hours
-
8
Block 4: valuation
What are you paying for?
Share price, market value and four valuation measures, without turning them into a verdict.
4 hours
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9
Block 4: valuation
Testing assumptions
Three scenarios, a sensitivity table and a stress test. The calculator at the top of this page comes from this week.
4 hours
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10
Block 5: risk
Why might I be wrong?
The strongest argument against yourself, a pre-mortem, and signals you commit to in advance.
3 hours
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11
Rules and tax
Rules, tax and checking providers
Telling information from advice, checking a provider with the Dutch regulator (AFM), and keeping records for your tax return.
3 hours
-
12
Wrap-up
Your analysis on one page
Summarize everything, review your diary, and set a routine to keep your analysis up to date.
4 hours
Feedback session 2: you hand in your one-page analysis for feedback on your method.
Who it's for, and who it isn't
It suits you if
- you want to understand how a company makes money, and back that up with numbers;
- you want to start from the basics: terms like balance sheet, EBIT and P/E are explained;
- you can set aside about 3 to 4 hours a week for reading and working the numbers.
It isn't for you if
- you're looking for tips, price targets or a list of stocks to buy;
- you want to know how much to invest or how to split your money. That depends on your own situation and is outside this program;
- you're after quick or guaranteed returns.
What you get
- Twelve workbooks, one unlocking each week, with explanations, worked examples, an assignment and a checklist.
- A set structure for your decision diary that you build on every week.
- One fictional practice company, Poldervelo N.V., worked through from week 1 to 12.
- Two feedback sessions, in week 6 and week 12, on the quality of your reasoning.
Questions
Will I get advice on which stocks to buy?
No. You learn how to analyze a company, not which company to buy. The feedback sessions are about your method too, never about a decision to buy or sell. This program is education, not investment advice.
Do I need any background knowledge?
No. The program starts with how to choose a company and where to find reliable information. Balance sheets, income statements and ratios are explained step by step, with a worked example.
How much time does it take?
A new workbook unlocks every week. Each one takes between 2 and 5 hours depending on the topic, about 39 to 44 hours in total. Within each week you work at your own pace.
What do I need?
The workbooks, a calculator or spreadsheet, internet access to look up annual reports, and somewhere to keep your diary: a spreadsheet, a notes app or paper.
Is Poldervelo N.V. a real company?
No. Poldervelo is made up, and so are all its figures and its share price. It exists only to calculate with. For your own analysis you choose a real company in week 2.
Can I share the workbooks?
No. The workbooks are for the personal use of participants only. Sharing or reselling them is not allowed.
Start with week 1
Once you enroll, week 1 unlocks in the member area right away, and a new workbook unlocks every week after that.
Enroll